Defined model
A carbon-14 atom decays within a million years
- Probability:
- (100 − 2.91 × 10⁻⁵¹)%
- Odds:
- (3.43 × 10⁵²) to 1
- dBan
- +525.4 dBan
With a half-life of 5,730 years, the cumulative probability that one carbon-14 atom decays during the next million years is extremely close to one.
Calculation
p = 1 − 2⁻ᵗ⁄ᵀ½, with t = 1,000,000 years and T½ = 5,730 years
Assumptions
The model uses a constant exponential decay rate over the full interval. About half of a large group of carbon-14 atoms would decay within 5,730 years.
Sources
- CIAAW: carbon isotopic data carbon-14 half-life 5730 years