Defined model

A reported injury collision over a 500 km car trip

Probability:
0.015%
Odds:
1 to 6,650
dBan
−38.2 dBan

For a modelled 500 km car trip at Great Britain’s 2025 national rate, police-reported injury-collision involvement occurs about once in 6,650 trips.

Calculation

λ = 484 / (1,000,000,000 × 1.609344) per km; p = 1 − e^(−λ × 500) ≈ 1.5036 × 10⁻⁴

Assumptions

This defined model applies a constant-distance Poisson rate to one 500 km car trip. The national aggregate excludes property-only and unreported collisions. It describes vehicle involvement, not the chance that an occupant is injured or killed. The chosen distance is illustrative. Long-trip conditions can differ from the national average.

Sources

  1. UK Department for Transport: vehicles involved in reported road collisions, 2025 Table 2: 484 car involvements per billion vehicle miles, published 30 July 2026