Defined model

No reported injury collision over a 500 km car trip

Probability:
99.985%
Odds:
6,650 to 1
dBan
+38.2 dBan

At Great Britain’s 2025 national rate, about 6,650 of every 6,651 modelled 500 km car trips avoid police-reported injury-collision involvement.

Calculation

λ = 484 / (1,000,000,000 × 1.609344) per km; p = e^(−λ × 500) ≈ 0.9998496395

Assumptions

This defined model applies a constant-distance Poisson rate to one 500 km car trip. The national aggregate excludes property-only and unreported collisions. It describes vehicle involvement, not every kind of incident or mechanical problem. The chosen distance is illustrative. Long-trip conditions can differ from the national average.

Sources

  1. UK Department for Transport: vehicles involved in reported road collisions, 2025 Table 2: 484 car involvements per billion vehicle miles, published 30 July 2026