Estimate

A total solar eclipse where you live within a year

Probability:
0.267%
Odds:
1 to 374
dBan
−25.7 dBan

At a representative fixed place, a total solar eclipse overhead is a roughly one-year-in-375 event over the long run.

Calculation

p ≈ 1/375 from the long-run mean return interval

Assumptions

This is a frequency-based annual approximation for a representative fixed place. Real intervals and local rates vary. Clouds are outside the event, and the estimate is not a forecast for a named city or year.

Sources

  1. NASA GSFC: total solar eclipses and local recurrence average interval of about 375 years at one place