Defined model
A full Moon during a 28-day stay
- Probability:
- 94.82%
- Odds:
- 18 to 1
- dBan
- +12.6 dBan
About 95 in 100 modelled 28-day stays include the instant of a full Moon when their start points are uniform across the lunar cycle.
Calculation
p = 28 days / 29.530589 days ≈ 0.94817
Assumptions
The start phase is uniform and the synodic month is held constant at 29.530589 days. The model concerns the astronomical full-Moon instant and ignores weather, daylight, and the local horizon.