Exact model
Win rock-paper-scissors
- Probability:
- 33.3%
- Odds:
- 1 to 2
- dBan
- −3 dBan
A fixed move beats one of an opponent’s three possible moves, ties one, and loses to one.
Calculation
p = 1 beaten opponent move / 3 possible moves = 1/3
Assumptions
The opponent chooses all three moves with equal probability, independently of your fixed move.
Sources
- Uniform three-outcome model