Defined model
A full Moon during a 15-day stay
- Probability:
- 50.8%
- Odds:
- 1 to 1
- dBan
- +0.1 dBan
About 51 in 100 modelled 15-day stays include the instant of a full Moon when their start points are uniform across the lunar cycle.
Calculation
p = 15 days / 29.530589 days ≈ 0.50795
Assumptions
The start phase is uniform and the synodic month is held constant at 29.530589 days. The model concerns the astronomical full-Moon instant and ignores weather, daylight, and the local horizon.