Exact model

At least two of four dice match

Probability:
72.2%
Odds:
2.6 to 1
dBan
+4.1 dBan

Of the 1,296 possible rolls of four fair dice, 936 contain at least one matching pair.

Calculation

p = 1 − (6 × 5 × 4 × 3) / 6⁴ = 1 − 360/1296 = 13/18

Assumptions

The four fair dice roll independently. Any repeated face counts, including triples and four of a kind.

Sources

  1. Fair independent dice model