Exact model

At least two of five dice match

Probability:
90.74%
Odds:
9.8 to 1
dBan
+9.9 dBan

Of the 7,776 possible first rolls of five fair dice, 7,056 contain at least one matching pair.

Calculation

p = 1 − (6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2) / 6⁵ = 1 − 720/7776 = 49/54

Assumptions

The five fair dice roll independently. Any repeated face counts, including larger matching groups. No dice are rerolled.

Sources

  1. Fair independent dice model