The Scale of Probability

Explore familiar and extraordinary chances on a logarithmic scale of probability, odds and decibans.

  1. A green pea seed
  2. Win rock-paper-scissors
  3. At least one ace in five cards
  4. Texas Hold’em: exactly one pair
  5. A chosen side of a fair coin
  6. At least one six among four dice
  7. A chosen month has 31 days
  8. Three dice sum to at least 10
  9. A 2–10 card from a standard deck
  10. A chosen day is Monday through Friday
  11. A random point falls in the ocean
  12. A yellow pea seed
  13. A six on one fair die
  14. A four on a fair d4
  15. A twelve on a fair d12
  16. A natural 20 critical success on a d20 attack roll
  17. Two dice show the same number
  18. An ace from a standard deck
  19. The ace of spades from a deck
  20. Exceed a 1% annual flood threshold
  21. Two dice both show six
  22. Three dice all match
  23. Three dice all show six
  24. Yams/Yahtzee on the first roll
  25. Guess “123456”
  26. Guess “qwerty”
  27. Guess “password”
  28. Guess a four-digit PIN
  29. Texas Hold’em: high card
  30. Texas Hold’em: exactly two pair
  31. Texas Hold’em: three of a kind
  32. Texas Hold’em: a straight
  33. Texas Hold’em: a flush
  34. Texas Hold’em: a full house
  35. Texas Hold’em: four of a kind
  36. Texas Hold’em: a non-royal straight flush
  37. Texas Hold’em: a royal flush
  38. A randomly chosen dry-air particle is nitrogen
  39. A randomly chosen dry-air particle is oxygen
  40. A randomly chosen dry-air particle is argon
  41. A randomly chosen dry-air particle is carbon dioxide
  42. A randomly chosen natural carbon atom is carbon-12
  43. A randomly chosen natural oxygen atom is oxygen-16
  44. A shared birthday in a room of 50
  45. A EuroMillions line wins any main-draw prize
  46. A France Loto line wins any main-draw prize
  47. A France Loto line wins no main-draw prize
  48. A EuroMillions line wins no main-draw prize
  49. Lightning strike in a year (US estimate)
  50. A France Loto line wins the jackpot
  51. A UK Lotto line matches six in either round
  52. A EuroMillions line wins the jackpot
  53. A US Powerball play wins the jackpot
  54. A US Mega Millions play wins the jackpot
  55. Pick one particular grain from a beach
  56. Two shuffled 3 × 3 cubes match
  57. Pick one particular grain from the Sahara
  58. Guess a manager-generated 16-character password
  59. Guess a six-word random passphrase
  60. Guess a random 128-bit AES key
  61. Guess a random 256-bit AES key
  62. A preselected Bitcoin hash appears within one day
  63. A radon-222 atom decays within the next year
  64. A carbon-14 atom decays within a million years
  65. A needle in a haystack
  66. Guess one word from the EFF wordlist
  67. A full Moon during a 15-day stay
  68. Drawing a consonant in French Scrabble
  69. A year with a total solar eclipse
  70. Frozen freshwater
  71. At least two of four dice match
  72. A red dwarf in the Milky Way
  73. A year with a partial or total lunar eclipse
  74. At least two of five dice match
  75. A full Moon during a 28-day stay
  76. At least one vowel in the first seven French Scrabble tiles
  77. The Sun’s share of Solar System mass
  78. A double-yolk egg from young hens
  79. A day with rain in Hilo, Hawaiʻi
  80. A daylight moment is sunny in Phoenix
  81. An NBA free throw is made in 2023–24
  82. Jakub Mensik lands a first serve in Miami 2025
  83. A Premier League penalty is scored in 2023–24
  84. Guess an Enigma I configuration with known rings
  85. Guess an Enigma M3 configuration with known rings
  86. Guess an Enigma M4 configuration with known rings
  87. Guess an Enigma I configuration with two unknown rings
  88. Guess an Enigma M3 configuration after Banburismus clues
  89. A total solar eclipse where you live within a year
  90. Rain in Brest in December
  91. Avoid a natural 1 critical failure on a d20 attack roll
  92. A France Lettre verte arrives within three working days in 2025
  93. A France Lettre verte arrives within five working days in 2025
  94. A counter-posted Colissimo arrives within two working days in 2025
  95. Electricity is available at a US home in 2024
  96. Electricity is available at an Île-de-France home in 2024
  97. Gmail is available in 2013
  98. Stripe is available in 2023
  99. A commercial flight without an IATA-defined accident in 2025
  100. Avoid a natural 1 on a d20 attack roll with advantage
  101. One DNA nucleotide is copied correctly
  102. A Destined Rivals booster contains a Double Rare Pokémon ex card
  103. A Destined Rivals booster contains an Illustration Rare card
  104. A Destined Rivals booster contains a Special Illustration Rare card
  105. A household in France has a television · second half of 2025
  106. A person aged 12 or older in metropolitan France has a smartphone · 2025
  107. A person aged 12 or older in metropolitan France has a mobile phone · 2025
  108. An IATA-defined accident on a commercial flight in 2025
  109. COVID infection before a rapid antigen test
  110. COVID infection after a positive rapid antigen test
  111. COVID infection after a negative rapid antigen test
  112. A de novo DNA-letter mutation in one human generation
  113. A reported injury collision over a 20 km car trip
  114. No reported injury collision over a 20 km car trip
  115. A reported injury collision over a 500 km car trip
  116. No reported injury collision over a 500 km car trip
  117. A breakdown or non-start within a year for a recent car
  118. A year without a breakdown or non-start for a recent car
  119. A four-leaf white clover
  120. Winning a straight-up roulette bet
  121. Winning a split roulette bet
  122. Winning a street roulette bet
  123. Winning a corner roulette bet
  124. Winning a six-line roulette bet
  125. Winning a dozen or column roulette bet
  126. Winning a roulette bet on red
  127. Winning a two-dozen or two-column roulette bet
  128. A natural blackjack from a six-deck shoe
  129. A drop in an Olympic pool
  130. A drop in a garden pool
  131. Four dice all match
  132. Reproduce one specified deck order
  133. Two UUIDv4 values collide
  134. Two distinct inputs share one SHA-256 hash
  135. A shared birthday in a room of 10
  136. A shared birthday in a room of 20
  137. A shared birthday in a room of 30
  138. A shared birthday in a room of 40
  139. A shared birthday in a room of 60
  140. Drawing a vowel in French Scrabble
  141. At least one consonant in the first seven French Scrabble tiles
  142. Drawing a joker in French Scrabble
  143. At least one joker in the first seven French Scrabble tiles
  144. Reproduce one specified 78-card tarot order
  145. Reproduce one specified 32-card belote order
  146. An observed exoplanet is Earth-sized or smaller
  147. A simulated terrestrial planet forms a massive moon
  148. Hydrogen in a common star
  149. Helium in a common star
  150. Hydrogen or helium in a common star
  151. A randomly chosen star is on the main sequence
  152. Ordinary cosmic matter in stellar-remnant black holes